On September 14, 2024, a significant X4.5 solar flare erupted from the newly numbered Active Region 3825 (AR3825) on the Sun’s southeastern limb.
The flare ranks among the strongest in Solar Cycle 25 and was accompanied by a coronal mass ejection (CME). This event has the potential to trigger geomagnetic disturbances on Earth, with space weather agencies like NOAA monitoring its trajectory and impact closely.
Details of the Solar Flare and Coronal Mass Ejection (CME)
The flare lasted from 15:13 UTC to 15:47 UTC, peaking at 15:28 UTC, and was classified as an X-class flare, the most powerful type of solar flare. These types of flares are known to cause significant disruptions, including radio blackouts and potential disturbances to satellite systems and power grids. NOAA's Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC) is tracking the flare's associated CME, which is expected to pass close to Earth, with a potential glancing blow around September 16.
Preliminary data from NOAA’s models suggest that while the CME is not a direct hit, its approach could still result in geomagnetic storms. Additionally, the CME may affect Mercury and Mars, with potential interactions expected on those planets in the coming days.
X4.5 solar flare produced by AR 3825 at 15:29 UTC. pic.twitter.com/By5fNlf9Et
— SolarHam (@SolarHam) September 14, 2024
NOAA's Geomagnetic Storm Forecast
The X4.5 flare triggered an R3 (strong) radio blackout, impacting high-frequency communications over regions like the Arabian Sea. NOAA’s SWPC has issued alerts for potential G1 to G2 (minor to moderate) geomagnetic storms as the CME approaches Earth. These storms could disrupt satellite operations, GPS signals, and power grids, particularly at high latitudes.
NOAA’s ENLIL model, which tracks CMEs and predicts their paths, is continuously updating the trajectory of the plasma cloud. NOAA’s experts believe that auroras may be visible as far south as parts of the United States and Canada, similar to the G2 geomagnetic storm that occurred on September 13. That event led to auroras as far south as Montana and Washington, providing a preview of what could come with the next storm.
AR3825: A New Solar Hotspot
Active Region AR3825 is rapidly becoming a focal point for solar activity. With a complex beta-gamma-delta magnetic configuration, the region is capable of producing more X-class flares in the coming days. NOAA’s solar forecasters are keeping a close watch on this area as it rotates into a more Earth-facing position.
In recent days, AR3825 has already produced several M-class flares, but the jump to an X4.5 flare marks a significant escalation. As this region continues to evolve, any future eruptions could have more direct impacts on Earth. NOAA's SWPC will continue monitoring solar activity, providing real-time updates on potential space weather hazards.
NOAA’s Role in Solar Weather Monitoring
NOAA's Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC) plays a critical role in monitoring solar activity and forecasting space weather events that could affect Earth. NOAA’s data from satellites, such as SOHO and SDO, help predict the arrival and potential impact of solar flares and CMEs. The KP Index, which NOAA uses to measure geomagnetic activity, currently shows quiet-to-unsettled conditions, but NOAA forecasts that these conditions could change once the CME from the X4.5 flare reaches Earth.
NOAA’s predictions are essential for industries that rely on satellite communications, power grids, and navigation systems, all of which can be affected by geomagnetic storms. The agency provides real-time alerts to mitigate potential disruptions, ensuring that critical infrastructure remains prepared for space weather impacts.
Solar Cycle 25: More Flares and CMEs to Come
As Solar Cycle 25 progresses, we can expect more frequent and intense solar flares and CMEs. NOAA's space weather experts predict that the solar cycle will peak within the next few years, bringing an increase in X-class flares and stronger geomagnetic storms. Agencies such as NOAA and NASA are working together to improve space weather forecasting, helping to protect Earth’s infrastructure from the potentially harmful effects of solar storms.
The CME from this X4.5 flare could produce a minor to moderate geomagnetic storm, with impacts ranging from satellite communication disruptions to visible auroras in northern regions. NOAA will continue to provide updates as the CME approaches, offering insights into any further risks.