A recent public meeting of NASA’s Aerospace Safety Advisory Panel (ASAP) has sparked new concerns over the future of the International Space Station (ISS), warning that the aging orbital outpost has now entered the “riskiest period of its existence.” According to SpaceNews, panel members expressed deep concern about unresolved structural issues, mission delays, and severe budget shortfalls that threaten both ongoing operations and the station’s safe deorbit in the years ahead.
Cracks in Zvezda, Cracks in Confidence
The panel pointed to ongoing structural problems in the Zvezda module, specifically cracks in the PrK vestibule—a key junction in the Russian segment. These cracks, which have eluded a definitive cause or solution, are being closely monitored by both NASA and Roscosmos. In the meantime, station managers have imposed operational restrictions like limiting repressurization.
“The ISS has entered the riskiest period of its existence,” said Rich Williams, emphasizing that these aging systems are not isolated issues. “The panel has considered this one of our highest concerns.”
Budget Deficit Could Compromise Deorbit and Safety
Compounding these structural concerns is an urgent need for a reliable deorbit strategy, especially in the event of an emergency. NASA has contracted SpaceX to build the U.S. Deorbit Vehicle (USDV), but it remains years away from delivery. If the ISS had to be deorbited before then, the risk to the public from debris could increase “by orders of magnitude,” the panel warned.
“Overarching all of these risks is a large ISS budget shortfall,” Williams added. “All of these risks are actually a derivative of this budget shortfall and collectively contribute to potential compromise of the low Earth orbit transition plan.”
Financial Strain Threatens Safety Margins
NASA’s 2024 operating plan allocates nearly $1 billion to ISS operations, plus another $1.6 billion to crew and cargo transport. But ASAP is worried that over $1 billion in additional costs—for the USDV and launch infrastructure—could come directly out of the ISS’s already stretched budget.
In its 2024 annual report, the panel issued a stark warning: “The Panel has grave concerns, however, that if the necessary funds for both the USDV and the supporting launch infrastructure (over $1B in total) comes solely from the existing ISS budget, this will unduly strain NASA’s ability to safely perform normal and contingency ISS on-orbit operations.”
Don’t Pull Resources Too Early, Panel Warns
With the ISS nearing its projected end, the temptation to scale down funding is real—but dangerously premature, according to ASAP. “As programs near final phases, it is tempting to assume less resources will need to be available,” Williams said. “For the ISS, it is critical to maintain adequate budget and resources until the vehicle is safely reentered.”
While praising the station’s long history of operational success, the panel was blunt about the risks ahead: “The panel appreciates the demonstrated operational excellence of the ISS program, but remains deeply concerned about the increasing and cascading risk attending the program over the next several years.”
The ISS, scheduled for retirement by 2030, is facing pressure on multiple fronts—from long-standing cracking in its Russian-built Zvezda module, to supply chain disruptions and delays in new vehicle launches. These operational problems are mounting as NASA shifts funding toward future commercial space station ventures and plans to build a U.S. Deorbit Vehicle (USDV) with SpaceX, further stretching already thin ISS resources.
