Freezing Temperatures on the Way: The Arctic Vortex Is Headed for Europe and Is Likely to Hit in the Coming Weeks

A rare and abrupt disruption in the Arctic polar vortex is expected to impact spring temperatures across Europe and parts of the United States. Scientists are monitoring the event closely, as the vortex has not only reversed its usual wind direction but has also shifted away from the North Pole, settling over northern Europe—a development that may lead to colder-than-average conditions in the coming weeks.

A Rare Shift in the Stratosphere

On March 9, a sudden stratospheric warming (SSW) event altered the typical dynamics of the Arctic vortex. These events are characterized by a rapid increase in temperature high above the polar region, often leading to a weakening or even reversal of the stratospheric jet stream.

In this case, the warming was so significant that it reversed the vortex’s wind pattern, flipping it from its standard west-to-east flow to an unusual east-to-west rotation. This disruption has also displaced the vortex, with its core now located above northern Europe.

The polar vortex is a massive circulation of frigid air that typically forms around the Arctic during the winter months. It strengthens when the region receives minimal sunlight, cooling the stratosphere to well below tropical temperatures. The Earth’s rotation then bends the flow of air, creating a strong west-to-east current around the pole.

However, as sunlight returns in spring, this balance starts to change. The tropical stratosphere cools while the Arctic warms, eventually weakening and reversing the vortex’s circulation. That process usually unfolds gradually. This year, however, it occurred abruptly and well ahead of schedule.

Sudden Stratospheric Warming Intensifies

The shift was driven by planetary-scale Rossby waves—massive atmospheric undulations that rose from the lower atmosphere into the stratosphere, triggering a powerful warming effect over the pole.

In some cases, these waves can heat polar stratospheric air to the point that it becomes warmer than the tropics. When this occurs late in the season, after the polar night ends, the stratosphere may not cool again. Instead, it enters a phase known as the final warming, which can persist into the fall.

According to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), the vortex this year is struggling to regain its position above the pole. Observations show that after the initial collapse in early March, the winds at 60°N latitude have twice attempted to rebuild westward flow—each time unsuccessfully. In both cases, renewed warming events drove the winds further eastward, reinforcing the breakdown.

Last year, a similar event began in early March, but the vortex managed to recover temporarily, with the final warming only arriving on April 28. This year, however, the NOAA confirms that the vortex has likely collapsed for good—marking the second-earliest final warming on record, dating back to 1958.

Cooler Conditions Ahead for Europe and Beyond

The collapse of the polar vortex is expected to influence weather patterns at the surface. This is due to a phenomenon known as stratosphere-troposphere coupling, where atmospheric changes in the upper layers propagate downward, affecting the lower atmosphere. The result is often a rise in pressure and temperature at high altitudes, which distorts the jet stream and allows cold Arctic air to move southward.

The NOAA warns that this could bring below-average temperatures to parts of northern Europe, Asia, and the eastern United States. While early March brought near-normal conditions in some regions, updated projections point to a heightened probability of colder-than-usual weather in the near term.

Anomalies in atmospheric thickness have already been observed stretching from the stratosphere to the troposphere, supporting the idea of a strong coupling event. As remnants of the polar vortex continue to drift across northern Europe, this cold air intrusion may shape the weather narrative of early spring well beyond typical expectations.