The Tibetan Plateau, often referred to as the “roof of the world,” is witnessing a surprising transformation. Many lakes across the globe are shrinking due to climate change and human intervention, yet those in northern Tibet are expanding at an unprecedented rate.
A Growing Phenomenon Observed From Space
Decades of satellite observations have revealed a striking trend: the lakes in the northern Tibetan Plateau are increasing both in number and size. In 1991, researchers identified 4,385 lakes larger than 0.1 square kilometers. By 2023, that number had surged to 6,159 lakes, covering an area nearly the size of Lake Michigan.
Extensive monitoring by Landsat satellites has captured this transformation in high-altitude grasslands, particularly in Nyima and Qiemo counties of southwestern China’s Changtang region. A comparison of images from 1994 and 2024 confirms significant lake expansion across the landscape.
What’s Causing The Lakes To Expand?
Unlike most other lakes, which rely on rivers for inflow and outflow, many Tibetan lakes exist in endorheic basins—closed systems where water collects but has no natural outlet. This makes them highly sensitive to environmental changes, including:
- Increased precipitation – Some studies suggest rising rainfall levels over the plateau contribute significantly to the lake expansion.
- Melting glaciers and permafrost – As global temperatures rise, the glaciers feeding these lakes release more water. Permafrost thawing also increases runoff, further swelling the lake levels.
- Reduced evaporation rates – Some researchers speculate that seasonal temperature fluctuations and changing atmospheric conditions may be slowing down evaporation, allowing water to accumulate more rapidly.
Climate Change’s Fingerprint On Tibet
Climate change is playing an undeniable role in the rapid expansion of lakes on the Tibetan Plateau. Studies published in Scientific Reports and the Journal of Hydrology indicate that rising air temperatures are accelerating glacial melt while simultaneously altering precipitation patterns.
A study in Nature Geoscience projects that by 2100, expanding lakes could submerge 10,000 square kilometers of grasslands, wetlands, and croplands, displacing hundreds of settlements and cutting off hundreds of kilometers of roads.
Often regarded as an early warning system for global climate shifts, the Tibetan Plateau offers a critical case study of how rising temperatures could reshape high-altitude environments across the world.
The Human Cost Of Rising Waters
Scientific discoveries are shedding light on this transformation, yet they also come at a cost for local communities. Expanding lakes are flooding villages, livestock pastures, and roads, forcing residents to abandon their homes and relocate.
“The dramatic increases in lake area are flooding people’s homes, displacing livestock, and making some glacial lakes vulnerable to outburst flooding,” says Fangfang Yao, a researcher at the University of Colorado Boulder and lead author of a study on the subject.
Some glacial lakes are becoming vulnerable to outburst flooding, where sudden water releases cause catastrophic downstream damage. Communities in lower-lying areas face increasing risks of displacement, economic hardship, and infrastructure collapse.
