As greenhouse gases continue to accumulate in Earth’s atmosphere, they are reshaping not only the planet, but the very nature of space itself.
The recent discovery by MIT aerospace engineers has unveiled a troubling connection between rising carbon emissions and an increasing volume of space debris, which is likely to cause major problems in the future.
Shrinking Space: The Role of Greenhouse Gases
The thermosphere, where satellites like the International Space Station orbit, is already experiencing significant changes due to increased levels of greenhouse gases, especially carbon dioxide.
These gases are causing the thermosphere to cool and contract, reducing the air density. The additional cooling effect caused by emissions is significantly altering the dynamics of low-Earth orbit (LEO).
However, with the reduction in drag, debris lingers longer in orbit, making the risk of collision much higher. The long-term implications of this are quite alarming, especially when considering the rapid expansion of satellite fleets like SpaceX’s Starlink, which comprises thousands of small satellites.
The Dangers of Orbital Congestion
This shift in atmospheric dynamics is threatening the sustainability of satellite operations in low-Earth orbit. According to the MIT study, if current greenhouse gas emission trends continue, the capacity of space to safely accommodate satellites could shrink by as much as 66% by 2100.
There are already over 10,000 satellites in orbit, and the number continues to grow rapidly. In the past five years alone, more satellites have been launched than in the previous 60 years combined. With this unprecedented growth, satellite operators are already performing frequent collision-avoidance maneuvers to ensure the safety of their spacecraft.
Climate Change and Its Impact on Space Operations
Human activity on Earth, particularly our reliance on fossil fuels and subsequent emissions, is directly impacting how we can operate satellites in the future.
As MIT’s Richard Linares states, “Our behavior with greenhouse gases here on Earth over the past 100 years is having an effect on how we operate satellites over the next 100 years.”
The delicate balance of the atmosphere is being disrupted by climate change, and the increasing number of satellites launched each year is exacerbating the issue.
If these trends continue, the situation could become unsustainable. By 2100, the number of satellites that can safely operate in low-Earth orbit may be drastically reduced.
The Growing Threat of Cascading Collisions
The MIT team’s research also points to a worst-case scenario—a “runaway instability”—where even a small increase in satellite congestion could lead to a cascade of collisions. These collisions would generate so much debris that they could prevent satellites from safely operating in certain regions of low-Earth orbit.
This runaway effect would not only make future space missions increasingly difficult but could also lead to a significant reduction in the accessibility of space itself.
“The sky is quite literally falling — just at a rate that’s on the scale of decades,” says William Parker, one of the lead authors of the study. “We can see this by how the drag on our satellites is changing.”
