In a cosmic twist of fate, scientists have confirmed that asteroid 2024 YR4, a near-Earth asteroid previously thought to pose a significant threat, will not collide with our planet in 2032. However, that doesn’t mean we can forget about it. According to a recent study published in The Conversation, asteroid 2024 YR4 will make another close approach to Earth—and its trajectory could shift over time, posing future risks.
The Asteroid’s Trajectory and Its Implications
Asteroid 2024 YR4 is part of a group of asteroids that follow a specific resonance with Jupiter’s orbit. This means that the asteroid crosses Earth’s orbit every few years, but the risk of an actual impact is still low for the foreseeable future. However, the asteroid’s path is closely monitored by scientists, as it has been known to make close passes with Earth, which increases the chances of a future collision.
Asteroids like 2024 YR4 are part of a broader class known as resonant asteroids, which are trapped in orbits that periodically bring them into close proximity to Earth. This phenomenon is a result of the gravitational influence of Jupiter, which can alter the trajectory of these space rocks over time. While this may seem like a distant threat, the reality is that resonant asteroids like 2024 YR4 could present a danger at any given moment, depending on their orbits.
The Good News: No Impact in 2032
Thankfully, based on current observations and calculations, scientists have determined that 2024 YR4 will not collide with Earth in 2032. This conclusion was reached after extensive tracking and data analysis, which confirmed that the asteroid’s trajectory will not intersect with Earth’s path at that time. However, it’s important to note that the asteroid’s orbit is still subject to change, and future observations are essential to confirm its exact trajectory.
The asteroid’s next close approach to Earth is now expected in 2052, but even that is not guaranteed. Current models suggest that 2024 YR4 may eventually drift to a less frequent orbit, meaning that while it will no longer be on a direct collision course, it will still pass near Earth from time to time.
The Return of Alinda: A More Dangerous Threat
While 2024 YR4 might seem like the immediate concern, there is another asteroid that presents an even greater risk: 887 Alinda, a much larger asteroid with a diameter of over four kilometers. Alinda is part of the same group of resonant asteroids and has a much more dangerous potential for future impacts, although it is not on a collision course with Earth in the near future. This massive asteroid could one day lead to a global extinction event if its orbit aligns with Earth’s path.
Future Monitoring and Protection
While 2024 YR4’s potential for collision in 2032 has been ruled out, scientists are continually refining their models to track the orbits of these asteroids more accurately. Space-based observatories, like the NEO Surveyor, will be instrumental in detecting and characterizing near-Earth objects, helping us stay ahead of potential threats.
In addition to monitoring the paths of these space rocks, researchers are also working on developing methods to mitigate the risks posed by asteroids, including technologies for deflecting or redirecting their orbits if necessary. As the technology improves, humanity’s ability to predict and prevent asteroid impacts will only grow stronger.
