An asteroid measuring between 40 and 90 meters in diameter, named 2024 YR4, has recently been identified as a potential impact threat to Earth. Initially discovered on December 27, 2024, this space rock has now been classified by NASA’s Center for Near Earth Object Studies (CNEOS) as a possible hazard, with a 1 in 43 (2.3%) chance of colliding with Earth on December 22, 2032.
This probability makes it one of the most concerning near-Earth objects (NEOs) in recent history, prompting scientists and space agencies to evaluate possible countermeasures. With just eight years to prepare, the urgency to determine the best course of action is growing. However, experts warn that time may not be on our side.
Could We Stop 2024 YR4? The Clock Is Ticking
One of the main challenges in dealing with 2024 YR4 is the short timeline available to assess and respond to the threat.
According to Dr. Robin George Andrews, a volcanologist and science journalist who discussed the issue in a thread on X (formerly Twitter) on February 11, the problem is clear:
“We have less than eight years to potentially deal with it, but it takes 10 years or more to plan, build, and execute an asteroid deflection mission.”
This means that if action isn’t taken immediately, Earth may face a direct collision with the asteroid, with no viable means to prevent it.
Why Not Use NASA’s DART Method?
NASA has already proven with its Double Asteroid Redirection Test (DART) mission that it is possible to change an asteroid’s trajectory by slamming a spacecraft into it. In 2022, DART successfully altered the path of the asteroid Dimorphos, demonstrating the effectiveness of kinetic impact deflection.
Despite this success, 2024 YR4 may not be a good candidate for the same method. Unlike Dimorphos, which was a solid celestial body, many asteroids are “rubble piles”, meaning they are loosely held-together clusters of rocks, dust, and debris bound by weak gravity.
Dr. Andrews warns that if 2024 YR4 turns out to be a rubble pile, hitting it with a kinetic impactor like DART could have dangerous consequences:
“So many things could go wrong if we try to hit it with something like DART.”
A rubble pile impact could fragment the asteroid, creating a swarm of smaller but still deadly debris—which would still hit Earth, just in a scattered formation.
Additionally, if 2024 YR4 is too large, a single impactor might not be enough to change its trajectory. Multiple spacecraft would have to be sent in perfect coordination, increasing the complexity of the mission.
“No one wants to accidentally disrupt an asteroid only to have its components still head toward Earth,” explains Andrews.
A poorly executed deflection could also alter its path just enough that it still collides with our planet—but in an unexpected location.
“With only a few years of advance warning, we could accidentally shift its trajectory, but not enough to avoid the planet. Instead, it could hit a completely different, unexpected location.”
Where Would 2024 YR4 Hit? The Devastating Impact Potential
If 2024 YR4 were to collide with Earth, the consequences would depend heavily on its composition, speed, and impact location.
- A land impact would result in a massive explosion, equivalent to several nuclear bombs, causing widespread destruction over hundreds of kilometers.
- An ocean impact could trigger devastating tsunamis, flooding coastal cities and causing long-term climate effects.
- A metallic composition would increase its penetration depth, leading to stronger seismic effects and deep cratering.
An impact scenario similar to the 1908 Tunguska event, which flattened 2,000 square kilometers of Siberian forest, is a possibility. The difference is that 2024 YR4 is larger and could strike a populated area.
The 2028 Problem: Losing Sight of the Threat
One of the biggest issues with tracking 2024 YR4 is that it will soon disappear from view. The asteroid is currently moving away from Earth, and by 2025, it will be too faint for telescopes to observe.
“We won’t be able to track it again until 2028,” warns Andrews.
This means that for the next three years, we will have no way of refining its trajectory. By the time it becomes observable again, it may be too late to mount an effective deflection mission.
Last Resort: A Nuclear Deflection Mission?
If DART-style deflection isn’t viable, space agencies might be forced to consider a more extreme solution—a nuclear explosion near the asteroid to change its trajectory.
“Maybe we’ll break a troublesome taboo and decide to use a nuclear warhead to try and deflect it.”
The idea of nuclear asteroid deflection has been explored in theory, but no real-world tests have ever been conducted. A nuclear detonation near the asteroid (not a direct impact) could vaporize part of its surface, generating a force strong enough to alter its course.
This approach comes with significant risks:
- If detonated too close, it could break the asteroid into multiple fragments, still on a collision course.
- If miscalculated, the explosion might not shift its trajectory enough, leading to an impact anyway.
- International politics and treaties prohibit space-based nuclear detonations, making it a controversial option.
What’s Next? Monitoring and Rapid Response Plans
Scientists are now racing to gather more data on 2024 YR4’s size, composition, and exact orbit before it disappears from view.
If the risk level increases, space agencies may have to act before 2028—launching an early deflection test or designing an emergency plan for when 2024 YR4 reappears.
The countdown to December 22, 2032, has begun. The world is watching, waiting, and hoping that science finds a way to avert disaster.
Can’t deflect it? That’s silly — the US landed a guy on the moon 55 years ago, certainly, we have developed enough space technology to get up there soon. What, the US spent all of its space bucks buying votes in elections and did nothing in more than a half-century? We deserve everything we are going to get in 2032.
Boy have we ever got some poorly educated brains who have no clue how to rid us of any such problems. Deflect it is as useless as swatting a fly,
It is almost a guarantee to eliminate this with a nuclear explosion, that could be designed to explode on impact or be attracted to it by a simple on board radar system,
Where is the problem with a million or so small fragments ?
They will be going different directions by the time any of them would reach us,
And it as another thought
Why are these so called scientists not telling the world to send all nuclear waste on a rocket into the sun, And instead of expecting our future children left to dispose of and/or take care of this for millions of years,
How dumb are these so called scientist ?
Really dumb
Its better to hit it even if its a fragmentary body. Sure it would spread impact possible greater BUT it would be less intense AND some of the fragments would not strike Earth at all. I think the best approach is a nearby nuclear strike to change its course because its unreal how accurate our rocket scientists can fire something. For example look at the launch of JWST i mean that was an absolutely perfect trajectory.
I don’t “Got a reaction” as noted at the end of the article although I do HAVE this comment: GOT is hardly ever the correct word choice to use in a sentance.
An asteroid fragmented by an atomic explosion would cause far less damage than an intact one. Smaller fragments would either burn in the atmosphere or cause a far more limited damage (over a larger area). Much better than the explosion of the Tunguska asteroid.
A 2.3% chance of an impact means that there is a 97.7% chance that it misses earth entirely. It seems to me those are good enough odds for us to watch it carefully, but not freak out.
Let me get this straight. This thing is probablyh gonna hit us. Location unknown. If we try to do X it might break it into smaller pieces (probably a good thing) which would probably hit us. If we do Y it might deflect it do hit us in some other unknown location. IOW we don’t have a clue and we should just sit on our hands because … well… whatever we do might make it worse… or would probably make it better… but might make it worse.,,, but we have no clue anyway so just do nothing.
What a crick
1: This 2.3% is based off only 3, at most 4, data points. As more data points are acquired the chance of impact will likely go down. It could go up. When there are a few hundred data points we’ll have a better idea. Right now NASA and EU have it passing earth in 2028 at about 20 times earth-moon distance.
2: Hit it with a nuclear weapon? Seriously? We have no idea of it’s trajectory (see lack of data points in 1) , how far and how fast do you think a missile that is designed to go from one continent to another in about 45 minutes or less is going to travel in space. Several million miles. It’s currently 30 million miles away and getting further every day.
3: Launch nuclear waste into the sun. You mean because rockets never fail and there’s no chance of it destructing and spreading the waste across a few hundred miles of the earth.
4: This article is nothing but click bait.
5: We’ll be able to track it with earth bound telescopes until April 2025. It will no ‘disappear’ by 2025.
Bullshit. load a starship full of water and park it in the path.
If the object is at the high end of the mass estimate – it could do real damage – but chances are good it won’t hit us at all. Now the idea of launching nuclear waste at the sun – this notion has been around as long as we’ve had nuclear waste. It has never been seriously considered due primarily to the chance of a launchpad disaster – which is no small risk. Accidents – and sabotage ( or terrorism ) do happen – making the risk too large. As long as we’re using highly combustible chemicals, gases etc. to get large vehicles off the ground and into space – it won’t ever be a practical solution.
Don’t look up!
If the plane you were about to board had a 2.3% chance of blowing up and killing everyone on board, would you still board the plane and go on your trip? I mean after all, there’s still a 97.7% chance you’d make it…
Envelop and mine it. This could be a gift to civilization if we had the balls to make use of it. Don’t tell me it can’t be done. If we can make self driving cars, I know that’s a big “if,” then we can do this.
Just watch the movie “Don’t Look Up” to learn what will happen
With NASA Manned Spaceflight winding down, NASA has been looking for new missions to keep the bureaucracy funded. Proposing the Planetary Defense System (PDS) is clever, but would never get funded….unless you can create a threat. And, here we go!
There are many chances to deflect it, and you can run the launch windows using JPL’s small-body mission-design tool online. We can also pretty easily calculate the necessary delta-v to push the asteroid just enough off course and how big of an impactor we’d need, and it turns out it’s something that a single Falcon-9 size rocket could pretty easily carry and park right outside Earth escape trajectory and then let the YR4 run into it (remember it’s going very fast so our object just needs to be in the way). We also are *reasonably* sure that it’s a solid body based on its rotation rate, and not a rubble pile, and we know the range of spots it would hit on Earth, because we know YR4’s orbital inclination with high precision, just not it’s orbital period as well. Either way, we will take a look at it when it finishes passing behind the sun and is on its way back for its next encounter in 2028, and that will let us know with certainty whether it will hit or not (and most likely by then we’ll learn that it won’t), and it still gives us plenty of time to expedite a DART-style mission and either deflect it enough to miss the Earth, or deflect it enough make sure it hits the ocean where it will do little harm. Even at its upper bound of size, it would be something like a 40 Megaton blast, which would wipe a city out, but is not going to cause civilization ending dust clouds or devastating tidal waves if it hits the ocean. It would put on a heck of a show, though!
Nuke it full-on on with a 20 megaton nuke on its return trip to earth. It’s not that big (between 40 and 90 meters in diameter), and it would be vaporized. Very little radiation, if any, would hit the earth, as long as it is done far enough away from earth. Most of the dust and particles that remain would be deflected from the earth trajectory by the blast. If any hits the earth it would burn up in the atmosphere.
If it’s a 1 in 43 chance, chances are it will fly by the earth without doing any harm.
Since when did Bill Gates develop the technology to create planet killing asteroids too? I thought he was focussed on creating viruses and pandemics.
@David C
It actually takes much less energy to put something on an escape trajectory out of the solar system than it does to put it into the Sun. Scientists know this, you don’t. They also know how to calculate risks. The risk of a launch failure putting that waste back down where you don’t want it is also much higher than the risk of just burying it. You’re in no position to call them dumb.
You have a better chance of developing epilepsy or dying in a car accident.
My soul’s right with God. How’s yours?
Well, I’ll be a few days shy of turning 75 years old. Better to go out with a bang than a wimper.
We have nuked space before. Even a very small nuke creates a very damaging EMP. Bad bad idea.
Nukes in space?? Wow. Seems likely to cause some sort of negative reaction..
Gd created & sustains the universe & all its bits in all their orbits, yes, with or without a Big bang! Where u there so that u know?!
There’s no ways it all just happened!
And He knows what He’s doing. We can trust Him in the 97,7% chance it won’t hit earth, & in the 2,3% chance it will hit earth, i.e., 100% of the time. Just get on with life & obey Him, & choose to either plan a diversion – for when we’re more sure – or to jist leave it!
Ppl who fear Gd & His Word, are not going to be manipulated:
if Gd decides it should hit, it will hit; if He decides it shouldn’t hit, it won’t.
However, He may also want us to use the brains He gave us & our advanved ability to divert a disaster.
We just shouldn’t use it wrongly, nor independently of him, as only in decency is there wisdom, & a mistake could have grave consequences!
For the one who loves Torah, nothing is to them an obstacle – Psa.119:165 – neither it hitting us, nor our plans to divert it!
It would be unwise to do anything now – while we’re so unsure of it even being a threat – as altering its course could have far worse consequences in the future! It’s always best to leave it, if at all possible!
But, we should probably be prepared to do something significant between 2028 & 2032 at which time we should know for sure if it will definitely hit earth, or definitely not hit earth!
No doubt, all those working on this have thought of the consequences of various actions they may take:
we can never know 100% accurately what orbit would be its new one, & what it may hit on its subsequent orbits!
By this point, IF it is clear it will hit the easlrth – THEN we use our Plan A &/or Plan B to divert it in the right direction!
Besides options of:
(a) a spaceship crashing into it;
(b) nuking it,
there are other options!
E.g., a huge extremely strong net held open by 5 or 10 spacecraft & led by one or preferably multiple spacecraft – attached to the same places on the net as these 5 or 10 spacecraft – can catch it & pull it in a more calculated & accurate direction… even drag it – Kung Fu style – totally out of our solar system so that it poses no future risks.
This would work for both:
a) a solid mass &
b) a fragmented group held together by gravity.
Perhaps we could even determine the density when it reappears?
The spacecraft (pl) holding the net open, would need to be 100% accurately calculated or computer-controlled so as disembark / disengage from the net at jist the right time, so that they’re not drawn toward the centre to either collide with it & set it on an unplanned trajectory, or to collide with each other.
Most astroids are, surely, not perfectly round & balanced. It sounds like it’s lobsided so that it has a spin.
The finer details should all be worked out.
I guess Elon Musk would be a good person to head such a project!
To the one who suggested dumping nuclear waste on the sun, i’d say: Don’t mess with our sun nor anything in our “close” neighbourhood!
If u seriously want to dump, send it to a sun much bigger & much further away, which won’t cause any domino side-effects!
But best: let’s look at reducing waste in the 1st place!
By the time this Element became to Hit our Globe, it’s a chance that not to many Nations will Care about, not even those who don’t have respect for Nature, Human Life, Creation or their own Families for the sake of Power, This is the Time of the Lords War and their Demons, ready to make Humans to destroy thenself, who will be first?…
The precepts of Spirituality, is vane since Governors of the World never have had a Real experience of the Love of God, the Golden Commanded Rule or His Promeses, Because embraced into Religious Concepts, became to Be ( unfortunately ) as Spiritually Blind like those insensibles Sanctify Church Idols.
It’s written that one Day every Eyes will loock the moment of their Own deception, and it’s close by, every one designation is to Face Death, But!… It’s also necessary to Remember that a Blood price was Pay for our Soul Salvation, and is more tan necesary to Find the Way to get it through Repentance and Jesus The Christ.
Send a ship up with nukes I would give me up to be trained to be sent up there to push the button. To save everyone my family my kids I just would ask for some compensation for my family.
What about hitting it repeatedly with reusable rockets with air bags? Maybe one hit wouldn’t be enough to change it’s trajectory but multiple bumps AND rockets using radar and auto pilot would probably be our best long term defense strategy, and could be local tested and refined on the moon, which is slowly escaping the orbit of the Earth at the rate of one and a half inches per year.
Are you ppl really this dumb, 40-90 meters in diameter…… like come on we have bigger hit us everyday. By the time it hits earth it will most likely be the size of your pinky nail ……if that… it’s like saying Hilton has bought a spot on the moon to put a hotel, like come on. We have more important stuff to worry about in the world…..like Trump being president (anyone for WW3) he’s already barking up that tree
Don’t look up! Theory is wild but the asteroid might hit the ocean which can cause a tsunami.